Next Level Deer Patterning

We have all been there, picture after picture on trail camera of that one buck you’ve never really seemed to be able to get on. You know the conditions you need and all of your hunting prep is on point. Scent, access, stand location; it is all there but for some reason everytime you go out you never connect. Seeing deer isn't a problem and you've listened to all the podcasts and watched all the youtube videos. You are certain you have this buck patterned, but somehow he's always one step ahead of you it seems. The goal of this article is to talk through advanced level patterning. For most hunters that are taking on the challenge of hunting one or a few bucks in particular generally don't have issue getting on any deer. When it comes down to one, that's where it begins to get frustrating.

We've heard the age old adage about playing chess not checkers. Is that what's going on here, are these deer playing chess while us hunters are simply playing checkers? While deer are certainly smart, I don't think that is quite it. I don't believe the deer are one step ahead of us, but that doesn't mean we aren’t one step behind them. I've always believed that deer have personalities, so to say. Not to confuse that with human personalities, but for simplicity and ease of understanding that's how I present it. Their personalities are a mix of tendencies and behaviors that they have learned and adopted to survive combined with natural instincts and desires. For example, a buck may be naturally aggressive and territorial but after being unsuccessful shot at he learns to act on those natural tendencies more at night. All of that combined together is what I consider a deer personality to entail. That is obviously important if you are hunting specific bucks.

Tieing that back into chess vs checkers and being one step behind a buck, I don’t believe that deer actively play chess. I think that we as hunters try to pattern bucks but we grossly oversimplify it which ultimately puts us one step behind them. There are sooooo many conditions that can be measured and observed in conjunction with deer movement that it can almost be overwhelming at times. Yearly patterning, wind, bedding, scrape and rub cycles, food, water, weather, the moon, and more. There’s so many that while it can feel overwhelming it almost also should make it easier you would think. You may see this buck only comes through on a north wind with dropping pressure starting 5 days before November and only when there's corn on the neighboring property. What inevitably happens is you line all of that up, get yourself there and ready, and he is nowhere to be found.

I believe what is happening is a spin off of survivors bias combined with not looking into the data we have deep enough. I know, I just said it can almost be overwhelming the amount of data there is available. What is important and really just comes with time and trial and error is finding what of that information is actually useful. For example you go pull your camera and for 3 weeks straight every time your shooter buck is on camera, there is a north wind. So you conclude that this buck comes through this area on a north wind. But, what you did not look at is how many north winds were there that he did not come through on. A north wind may only be a piece of the entire picture, but as hunter (this is something I have certainly been guilty of as well) we simplify the movement and patterning down to a timeline that is too narrow.

Why in this hypothetical situation is this buck moving through this part of the property at this time on this wind? Considering this is a hypothetical situation, I am going to set some assumptions that fit with the scenario. North winds are almost always cooler than most other directions, so these north winds are almost like mini cold fronts. Let's say there is some better cover bedding on the north side of the property that he wants to get to when these colder winds blow in. Now we have established why he is making the move he is making on a north wind. The other necessary part is he needs to start to the south of you before the north wind so that when the wind comes he walks through your area where the stand is. Maybe there is a water source down there. The “equation” to get on this buck may not be a north wind but instead you need a hotter and drier day that makes him want to move down to that water source. Then when that is followed by cooler north winds he moves to that thermal style bedding and those are the conditions that are required for him to walk past your stand.

You need to bump that timeline back 12, 24, maybe 36 hours to see if the conditions have that next level information you're looking for. Simultaneously be looking at the weather when that buck is not walking past your camera. In the previous example, maybe the 12 hours before that north wind you sat and didn't see him there was moderate weather so he's 100 yards away chewing on beans because he doesn't need the extra hydration like he does when it's hot. You're sitting there thinking you got him, you have him pinned, meanwhile he’s not even in the same body of woods.

This is just one hypothetical example that even for its length is truly simplified for ease of explaining and length. You need to know the characteristics and tendencies of individual deer when you're hunting them so you can make planned and educated guesses on how to successfully get on them. Just like the wind in that example I believe you can pretty much do this to some degree with every metric. I’ve always strongly thought this about moon phasing deer as well. I in no way believe that deer pay attention to or are affected by the moon itself. But, I have heard people say “everytime there's a full moon out I get trail camera pictures of this buck walking down this field edge in the morning”. I don't think the buck looks up at the moon and says well it's time to get up and walk over on that field edge. But, what I do believe is completely possible is when there is a full or nearly full moon and it is dead center of the sky on a clear night while the sun is rising, the extra light manipulates the deer movement. We've all been there when there is a big full moon, especially over a fresh layer of clean snow, and it's so bright that you feel like you could make an ethical shot a good 15-20 minutes before or after legal hunting light. Then, in this same scenario maybe you see a full moon is coming, but you don't recognize that the timing doesn't align with the sunset/rise time and the moon is out in the middle of the day. You're sitting in your stand wondering why you're not seeing this buck you thought for sure you had patterned.

At the end of the day, deer are trying to do what all other wild animals are doing. Survive and make more deer. They're certainly smart but I don't think they are playing chess. They're not actively taking account of what we are doing and making adjustments like we do to them. They are simply learning how to survive and incorporating that into their behaviors and patterns. But, when we are not stepping back and looking at the full picture it certainly can feel like they're playing chess. If you're looking to just get on any deer, there are some broad patterns and behaviors that you can decently rely on and none of what I just went through matters. If your goal is that one buck, to outsmart him, then you need to be taking into consideration the same information that the deer is. Otherwise it's like you're playing checkers while the deer is playing chess.